On the Middle East

On Wednesday of this week we will discuss in depth the Israeli-Palestinian issue, going back at least to the 1967 war (and actually as far back as 1948). After that, we will talk about what is going on in the Arab world today.

Note: not all of this is required reading. Once you log on and look around at, say, the BBC web site, feel free to navigate to areas that interest you. The point here is to educate yourself on two topics: Israel-Palestine and the Arab Spring. No one is an expert on the latter since it is a work in progress, so pick and choose from the reading below during study session.

For some of the articles below, you will have to register at scribd.com. Do it please.

On Israel/Palestine: first, familiarize yourself with the background.

Go here for a timeline with maps:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/middle_east/03/v3_israel_palestinians/maps/html/default.stm

Click on the various time periods to familiarize yourself with the chronology and how Israel and the region have changed.

For the latest information (2012), go here and navigate for various topics.

The two most important UN resolutions concerning Israel are UN 181 (which formed the Jewish and Palestinian states) and UN 242.

We will read UN 242 together in class. Please don't look it up on the web.

The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) has a website here.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry has a site here.

Required: Make sure you read this by Thomas Friedman and understand what the the "one state solution" and "two state solution" are.

Required: On the future of Jerusalem, go here for an interesting Op-Ed (scribd.com registration is required). 

On the Arab Spring: we will discuss the situation on Wednesday and Thursday.

Try to read some of the following:

Here is a great interactive timeline of the Arab Spring, courtesy of The Guardian, one of Britain's finest newspapers.

Required: Go here on the demographics of the Arab protests (good stuff on youth bulges, etc).

On the powerlessness of the US to influence events in the Arab world, read this short OpEd in the New York Times.

Facebook was crucial in starting and sustaining the Egyptian revolution. Here is an informative article from the New York Times.

Here is an Op-Ed from the Los Angeles Times on what the US response to the Egyptian revolution should be (written in February).

This article from the Atlantic does a good job of looking at Egyptian attitudes toward the Muslim Brotherhood.

Also, here is a thought-provoking piece on the "Responsibility to Protect" doctrine and whether it legitimizes the NATO intervention in Libya. 

Of interest but optional: This penetrating analysis by Joshua Kurlantzick looks at what the Arab Spring really means in the context of the trend toward democracy since the end of the Cold War. Kurlantzick is a skeptic about this "trend" for good reason.

Reading assignment for Tuesday night

For Wednesday, we will begin our discussion of Russia. Our book "Russia and the Near Abroad" is almost too complete; there is a wealth of material, so for tonight, let's all try to read at least the following:

Article 2 - The Kremlin Begs to Differ

Not required, but very interesting: Article 4 - To Die for Tallinn, by conservative commentator Pat Buchanan

Article 8 - Pride and Power

Article 10 - The Incredible Shrinking People


If time read (or if not, skim) Article 11 - NATO and Russia


In general, the first 100 pages of the book consist of an admirable history of Russia, with sections on domestic life, politics, demographics, foreign relations, etc. Read the articles above, but if you have the inclination, delve into those first 100 pages. I'd recommend p 65 (starting with the Russia-Georgia conflict) to p 72 (domestic violence against women) as a good overview for the purposes of our class. You might want to skim pp 46-49 or so on Putin's authoritarianism.

Reading assignment for Monday evening July 18

Steve Walt, "Alliances..." to be distributed.

John Mearsheimer, "Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War."

Richard Haass, "The Age of Nonpolarity," to be distributed and also read the chapter on "Europe, the Second Superpower" if there is time.

If time, skim chapter 32 in your Global Issues book: Robert Kaplan, "The Revenge of Geography." But it's not required.

For Thursday, July 7

We will discuss Afghanistan as a case study of a failed state and then in the afternoon we will talk about terrorism.

Afghanistan: The US has been involved in delicate negotiations with the Taliban for some time now, with full support from the US military. Go here for a brief update.

Afghanistan is a multi-ethnic state, and the Hazaras, of Bamyan Province, are physically distinct from the Pashtuns and Tajiks and Uzbeks. Since the Hazaras are Shi'ite Muslims in a largely Sunni country, they have been the object of not just discrimination, but ethnic cleansing during the reign of the Taliban. Go here for a good overview of the Hazaras, from the National Geographic.

Here is a piece by Ben Skinner on Bamyan Province, the home of the Hazara ethnic group and of Afghanistan's only female governor.

Bamyan is where the ancient Buddhas were destroyed by the Taliban in 2001. Go here for a video.

One of the under-reported stories out of Afghanistan is the threat posed by the increasing poppy production. Here is an amazing piece from Radio Free Europe on addiction in Afghanistan. (The RFE video can be found here.)

We will try to listen to this NPR piece on female addiction if we have time.

Three fun indexes for revolutions in the Middle East!

When political scientists (and sociologists and journalists) have too much time on their hands, they come up with inventive quantitative indexes for predicting and measuring the propensity for revolts. The Arab Spring has really fueled this sort of thing as of late. Here are the three most talked-about tools, all created since the Arab Spring.

First is the "revolting index" by Alen Mattich at the Wall Street journal. You can see it here at his blog.

Just as fun (even more so?) is Chrystia Freeland’s "uprising index" here.

The downloadable spreadsheet and narrative are here.

Note that Azerbaijan, according to these tools, is ripe for an Arab Spring-style revolution. (It's ranked the third-most likely country to revolt in Freeland's index!)

The Economist Intelligence Unit brings us a quantitative tool for predicting revolts in the Middle East only. Fun to look at, and you can change the weights of the factors by clicking on the "interactive shoe-thrower's index."

Freedom House's Least Free Places on Earth

Kinda what you'd expect: Chad, Somalia, N. Korea, Burma...

Here's what they said about S. Ossetia:

‎"When the would-be state of South Ossetia broke off from Georgia in August 2008, it touched off a brutal war between Georgia and Russia that killed hundreds of people and displaced thousands. Despite international criticism, Moscow recognized South Ossetia's independence from Georgia and proceeded with a political and economic takeover. After the war, South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity replaced most of his cabinet with officials from Russia, and Russian forces barred ethnic Ossetians from entering Georgia. The conflict caused the displacement of about 26,000 people, most of them ethnic Georgians. South Ossetians face the challenges of a Russia-funded, highly corrupt elite. All NGOs in the country operate under close government scrutiny. Accusations of corruption were leveled against Kokoity and Moscow-backed Prime Minister Vadim Brovtsev in 2010."

Go here for the list.